head count

Colorado’s student population is growing — but not so fast

Paris Elementary School teacher Elizabeth Rodriguez checks in with students on Aug. 28 2015. (Photo by Nic Garcia)

Colorado’s student population this school year grew at its slowest rate since 1989, further evidence that shifting demographics are having a significant impact on public schools.

The state added fewer than 6,000 students in kindergarten through 12th grade, an increase of 0.7 percent, according to a report released Thursday by the state education department.

That is lower than the 1.1 percent growth rate in 2015-16, and shy of the average growth rate of 1.3 percent in the past 20 years, the department said.

Colorado has not seen a decrease in enrollment since 1988.

The slower growth comes as Colorado’s population is booming. The state added 100,986 people between 2014 and 2015, making it the second-fastest growing state in the U.S.

The department did not speculate on why the growth slowed. But districts across the state have already begun to notice effects of a low birth rate among millennials, who are fueling much of the state’s population gains. A higher cost of living also is driving some poor families out of the Denver metro region.

Some school districts, including Aurora and Jefferson County, have begun to grapple with budget cuts because the state funds its schools primarily on how many students they educate.

The state reported the greatest enrollment growth in a region came from outside metro Denver — evidence that higher housing costs are causing families to uproot themselves. Districts in Colorado Springs, Fort Collins, Grand Junction, Greeley and Pueblo, grew by 1.4 percent, an increase of 3,513 students.

Meanwhile districts in “outlying towns,” an official department term to describe places such as Alamosa, Canon City, Roaring Fork, saw growth of 2.3 percent, an increase of 1,626 students.

Denver metro area schools grew by only 459 students for an increase of 0.1 percent.

The fastest growing district with more than 100 students was not a district in the traditional sense, but the state’s Charter School Institute. The institute, which opens and supervises charter schools across the state, grew by 1,352 students, a 9 percent increase from 2015. One reason for the growth: four new institute-chartered schools opened in 2016.

Denver Public Schools saw the second largest growth of a district with more than 100 students this year with an increase of 897 students, representing a 1 percent increase. That’s a slower rate than in recent years.

Hispanic students accounted for the largest increase of any racial or ethnic minority in raw numbers. Their numbers grew from 300,107 to 303,573 — 1.2 percent increase. However, Native Hawaiian or other Pacific Islander students showed the greatest percentage growth — 7 percent.

The Adams 12 Five Star Schools district had the largest drop in enrollment, from 39,287 in 2015 to 38,818 in 2016, a decrease of 1.2 percent.

The largest 15 districts and their current student enrollments are:

The state counts how many students are in its public schools every October.

research shows

Race, not just poverty, shapes who graduates in America — and other education lessons from a big new study

PHOTO: Meghan Mangrum

The study landed with a gut punch.

Black men earn significantly less than white men, even when they were raised in families making the same amount. Poor black boys tend to stay poor as adults, and wealthy black boys are more likely to be poor as adults than to stay wealthy.

“Black men raised in the top 1 percent — by millionaires — were as likely to be incarcerated as white men raised in households earning about $36,000,” explained a New York Times article, complete with graphics to let you follow different kids’ paths.   

“It was sobering to read,” said Ryan Smith the executive director of Education Trust – West, an education and civil rights advocacy group. “Me being a black man, obviously I’ve experienced some of the data, but to see it in black and white was tough.”

The study, released through the Equality of Opportunity Project, is noteworthy in scope, using data on millions of people born between 1978 and 1983 in the U.S. And while it focuses on their economic outcomes, the research also looks at education, where the impact of racism on black boys is also apparent. Here’s what the study tells us about schools and education policy.

Poverty is not a proxy for race when it comes to academic outcomes.

That’s clear in the data: Black students are much less likely to graduate from high school and attend college than white students with the same family income.

The differences were substantial. Whereas poor white men graduated high school about 78 percent of the time, black men whose families had the same income graduated only 70 percent of the time. Disparities for women exist too, but were much smaller.

Education policy sometimes proceeds under the assumption that socioeconomic status matters, but that race and racism — aside from their impact on family income — don’t.

This study suggests that just isn’t so.

Here’s another example: On federal math and reading exams, white eighth graders who qualified for subsidized lunch (indicating low family income) slightly outscored black eighth graders who did not qualify.

This has real-world consequences. A number of states that do not have school funding gaps between low- and high-income students still have gaps between white students and students of color, one recent analysis found.

In California, where Smith of Education Trust works, the state’s funding formula sends more money to schools with many low-income students. The idea is to get extra help for students who need it. But there aren’t additional resources allocated for black students who are behind academically, regardless of their families’ income.

“There are middle-income and upper-income African American students who are chronically underperforming and yet we’ve not created a structure to actually support their success,” Smith said. His group is supporting a bill in the California state legislature that would increase funding for a district’s lowest performing subgroup of students that doesn’t already get extra money. In many cases, that means black students.

“If those are African-American students in your state, in your districts, in your school, then we must at least have the conversation about what we can do differently,” he said.

Test scores may miss something in black girls.

The authors note a puzzling phenomenon: On average, black girls score lower on tests than white girls with the same family income, but there’s no such disparity in their adult earnings. This suggests that test scores don’t fully capture the skills of black girls.

Ironically, Raj Chetty, coauthor of this study, is perhaps best known in the education world for pioneering but controversial research on the links between test scores and adult income. (That research focused on teachers’ impact on student scores, which was found to translate into higher earnings later in life.)

The latest study doesn’t overturn the previous research, but it does raise questions about whether test scores may be less accurate for certain groups of students.

Can good schools and neighborhoods help close these gaps?

The paper points out that kids of all races do better in certain neighborhoods. “Black and white boys who grow up in neighborhoods with lower poverty rates, higher test scores, higher median rents, and more two-parent households tend to have higher incomes in adulthood,” they write.

The research finds that up to 25 percent of the black-white income disparity is connected to the neighborhood a student grows up in. That suggests that ensuring families of different races live in the same neighborhood and attend school together — integration — can have a significant effect.

But it’s unclear to what extent the quality of a school makes a difference. This study relies on average test scores to define school quality, though that doesn’t actually say much about how effective schools are.

We do know that early childhood education, school integration, educational spending, certain charter schools, and better teachers can benefit students in the long run, sometimes substantially so.

list list

Here are the 50 New York City schools with kindergarten waitlists in 2018

PHOTO: Christina Veiga
Kindergarten students at the Brooklyn School of Inquiry.

It’s the most anxiety-inducing season of all: Kindergarten placement letters are out in New York City.

All kindergartners are guaranteed a spot in a city school, and almost all families that prefer their zoned school ultimately get to enroll there.

But the city’s admissions process yields waitlists at dozens of schools for a period of time every year — and this year, there are 50 schools where not all local families who applied by the January deadline could be given a spot. In all, 590 applicants were placed on waitlists, compared to 1,083 a year ago, according to the city’s admissions tally.

Here are the New York City schools with kindergarten waitlists right now:

Waitlists typically clear over the spring and summer, as families opt for schools outside of their zone, including private or charter schools, or relocate out of the city. But each year, some kindergartners are assigned to schools outside of their zone — an issue that typically affects a few crowded neighborhoods in Queens and Brooklyn.

Half of the schools with waitlists had five or fewer children on them. Three schools had waitlists with more than 60 children: PS 196 and P.S. 78 in Queens and P.S. 160 in Brooklyn.

In a sign of just how volatile the admissions picture can be, just 23 of the 50 schools with waitlists this year also had them last year.

Some schools with large waitlists had none last year, according to a comparison of education department data from the two years. P.S. 78 in Queens has 73 children on the kindergarten waitlist this year, for example, but last year all zoned students who applied by the deadline were admitted right away.

On the other hand, some schools that placed many students on the waitlist last year were able to take all applicants this year. Last year, 43 children landed on the waitlist at P.S. 176 in Brooklyn, but this year, the school has no waitlist at all.